COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — We are still a few weeks away from the true start of leaf peeping season here in Ohio. Right now, though, you may have noticed that many trees are starting to show signs of color, or dropping some leaves. This is actually due to stress from our dry weather.
See the latest forecast from Storm Team 4 in the video player above.
Currently, most of the state is under “abnormally dry” conditions. In fact, almost a third of the state is now under what is considered a “moderate drought.” What we are noticing already is the product of almost five-plus weeks of very dry weather, putting some heavy stress on the trees.
When do we normally expect peak colors in Ohio?
Color changes will start to occur later this month, but will generally peak in the state next month, with the earliest peak in the northern part of the state in the first third of October. Now, areas very close to Lake Erie will generally be slightly delayed by a week or so due to proximity to the lake, which can keep nights a little warmer.
Once you get into the bulk of central Ohio, we are generally in the “mid-October” range for peak leaf colors in our parks. The southern part of the state will see this peak change the latest, with that generally occurring in the last week and a half of October.
What could cause shifts in leaf colors?
Temperature and precipitation are the two main driving factors of leaf changes. It is wild to look back at past seasons and see how many years we talked about dry or drought conditions impacting the early start, or the muted forecasts for a season.
Also, we have had seasons that have started late due to nearly ideal conditions that extended our leaf peeping season into early November.
As the seasons change, the longer nights (periods of darkness) cause the leaves to go through a process that slowly cuts off the chemicals in the leaves that give them the green color, and allows them to trap chemicals that keep the brilliant colors we look for.
This occurs until the veins in the leaves get cut off from fluids being transferred, and the leaf then is ready to fall.
So temperature, precipitation, and even the winds could have an impact on the brilliance of the colors, and when they occur, and for how long they stick around. Most of us can remember a time or two in the fall when the colors are starting to look awesome, then a strong cold front comes along and brings some rough winds that strip a lot of leaves off the trees.
While we are seeing stress on some trees, others seem to be fine. That has a lot to do with the type of tree, the location, and the soil moisture content. If you remember last year, we had dry conditions in August, very dry conditions in September, but our fall leaf peeping season wasn’t that bad.
While the forecast for the next couple of weeks does call for temperatures to swing back to more seasonal levels, if not a bit warmer than normal, the forecast also calls for much better chances for below-normal precipitation as well. Given that we will continue to see dry to moderate drought conditions and the lower sun angle, this generally means big swings in temperatures most days.
So overall, I would expect mid-September to continue with cool mornings, mild to warm afternoons, and drier than normal conditions. The soil moisture below the scorched top layer could have enough moisture deep down, given our more consistent rains in June and July. We might end up having the perfect ingredients this season for vibrant peak colors for leaf peeping this fall.
We will continue to keep a close eye on the weekly fall leaf updates from our state parks, and update the forecasts for the fall season.
